The Olympic Games of Athens are over. You may not be aware of it but another kind of competition was taking place behind the scene. Indeed, two professors of economics, Andrew Bernard (Dartmouth) and Meghan Busse (Berkeley) who have recently published an article entitled: "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals" have tried again to predict the number of medals that countries may collect at the end of the Athens game. They did it already for the 2000 games in Sidney and the accuracy of their results was pretty remarkable (their results are both compared to actual results and to results stemming from a naive strategy where the medals are the same as in the previous games).
So, how do they fare this year?
A snapshot of their results (published in Review of Economics and Statistics , 2004, Vol. 86, no.1.) is here and here. See for yourself! Whatever you think of econometrics (see also the wine notes in this Blog), this is a great way to teach econometrics by (timely) example!
Thanks to Craig Newmark for the info !